[LLM] over "Tensions Between Israel & the US - Alastair Crooke, Alexander Mercouris & Glenn Diesen"

Tabular, visual, and textual breakdowns and summaries

May 12, 2024

Introduction

This post applies various Large Language Model (LLM) summarization prompts to the transcript of the program «Tensions Between Israel & the US - Alastair Crooke, Alexander Mercouris & Glenn Diesen» by the YouTube channel The Duran.

In the program, british diplomat Alastair Crooke joins Alexander Mercouris and Glen Diesen to discuss the current situation in Israel and its implications for global geopolitics. They analyze the recent ceasefire agreement with Hamas, the changing dynamics between the US and Israel, and the rise of Iran as a regional power.

Here is a table of themes discussed in the text:

Remark: The LLM results below were obtained from the "raw" transcript, which did not have punctuation.

Remark: The transcription software had problems parsing the names of mentioned people and locations. Some of the names were manually corrected.

Post’s structure:

Most important or provocative statements
Extending the summary.
Mind-map
For orientation.
Summary, ideas, and recommendations
The main course.
Hidden and propaganda messages
Didactic POV.
Sophisticated feedback
While wearing hats of different colors.

Most important or provocative statements

Here is a table of the most important or provocative statements in the text:

The U.S. negotiated a peace deal with Hamas without consulting Israel.
- "I cannot remember a situation where the United States has negotiated a peace deal with an Arab adversary of Israel which Hamas unequivocally is in this way against uh without in fact Consulting Israel and going behind Israel's back now that that it seems to me whatever the politics behind it that is an extraordinary fact in itself"
The deal with Hamas is a victory for Hamas and an alarming development for Israel.
- "would it be going too far to say a kind of victory for Hamas and a very alarming development indeed for Israel"
The U.S. is undergoing a demographic shift and its global position is changing.
- "the United States is dealing with a different Israel from the one that it was used to it's not the Israel of benorian and gold the mayor any longer and Israel is finding that the United States is also changing as the United States changes internally because the demographic balance is changing but also as the United States finds that its Global position is very different from what it used to be even you know 10 15 20 years ago it is um it is finding it very difficult to adjust to a a a modern a changing world"
Israel is becoming increasingly isolated.
- "it's going it's it's risking isolation as well at a time when it appears to be feeling very frightened about itself that is a very very alarming combination of things given given uh given both the the eschatological views that you you you you speak of which are unquestionably there since we first had our discussion I I can see that absolutely so both the those views and recent Jewish history it it does make one very very worried indeed about where all this is going and what um Israel might do"
The only way out of the current situation is for Israel to talk to Iran.
- "the only way out of this the only way out of this is to finally do what is uh unavoidable eventually it's not certainly possible now would be to talk to Iran and find a way of living in the land between the river in the sea um as ordinary citizens just as Jews live lived in Iran for 300 years um with the same rights the same citizenship sometimes even better citizenship conditions um than uh the indigenous population"
The U.S. and Europe are in denial about the changes happening in the world.
- "these are the most profound ones questions and ones that you and I have been asking as we watched uh Ukraine unfold uh with the sort of extraordinary denial um that you see amongst the ruling classes of Europe and America"
Wishful thinking is preventing the West from adjusting to new realities.
- "my final comment I guess I just I was thinking when you spoke earlier about uh something kissing wrote in 2014 when The Crisis began to break out with Russia and he he wrote that you know if we consider Russia to be a great power uh which we should uh then you know the focus should be on how to learn to coexist and harmonize our interest with them and effectively walk away from this idea that security is Advanced by defeating Russia that this is something we have to abandon"
The West needs to have an honest discussion about how to coexist with China, Russia, and Iran.
- "one day we have to we'll arrive there but it'll take quite some time we have to go back to address the Lacuna uh that arose at the time of the fall of the beran wall uh where we made no arrangements for security architecture and understanding between the two spheres that were now uh uh emerging and eventually um the West has to come and America principally I suppose has to come to a negotiation about what is the North Atlantic National interest and the modus vend with the Heartland security and economic interest the whole of central um Asia and there has to be uh you know Russia touched on this in in 21 um and of course it's unacceptable to the United States today and to Europe today but sooner or later there's got to be a discussion about how to have some sort of modus for vending between the rimland and the Heartland in terms of their security needs and their sort of economic interest but it's a long way off unfortunately"

Mind-map

Here is a mind-map summarizing the text:

Summary, ideas, and recommendations

SUMMARY

British diplomat Alastair Crooke joins Alexander Mercouris and Glen Diesen to discuss the current situation in Israel and its implications for global geopolitics. They analyze the recent ceasefire agreement with Hamas, the changing dynamics between the US and Israel, and the rise of Iran as a regional power.

IDEAS:

The US-mediated ceasefire agreement with Hamas, surprisingly accepted by Hamas and rejected by Israel, has caused significant political turmoil in Israel.
The agreement, including a cessation of military operations and withdrawal of Israeli troops, was seen as a victory for Hamas and a betrayal by the US.
The incident highlights the growing divide between the Biden administration and the Netanyahu administration, particularly regarding the future of Gaza.
The majority of Israelis support the eradication of Hamas and continued military action in Gaza, reflecting a deep societal divide within Israel.
The US desire for a ceasefire is likely driven by domestic political considerations, particularly the negative impact of the conflict on the Democratic party.
The rise of the Mizrahi population in Israel has brought with it a more eschatological and apocalyptic worldview, further complicating the situation.
This shift is poorly understood in the West, where many still cling to the idea of a two-state solution and a return to a more secular Israel.
The current situation in Israel is part of a larger global trend of anti-colonial backlash against Western hegemony, led by powers like China and Russia.
The US is struggling to adapt to this changing world order and its outdated ideological framework prevents it from effectively responding to new challenges.
Iran has emerged as a major regional power, possessing significant military, technological, and economic capabilities, which are often underestimated in the West.
The recent Iranian missile strikes on Israel, while causing limited damage, served as a powerful message of deterrence and a demonstration of their capabilities.
Iran's growing influence, combined with its strategic partnerships with China and Russia, further challenges the existing power dynamics in the Middle East.
The US insistence on military solutions and regime change is increasingly ineffective in this multipolar world.
A sustainable path forward requires abandoning the idea of defeating Russia, China, or Iran and instead focusing on coexistence and harmonizing interests.
The lack of a security architecture established after the fall of the Berlin Wall has contributed to the current global instability.
The West needs to engage in honest dialogue and negotiation with Russia, China, and Iran to establish a new modus vivendi and avoid disastrous consequences.
The West's overreliance on wishful thinking and propaganda narratives prevents it from accurately assessing the situation and making necessary adjustments.
The economic and technological rise of China and Russia, coupled with the West's decline in industrial capacity and planning, further complicates the geopolitical landscape.
The West needs to undergo a period of catharsis and acknowledge its failures in order to pave the way for renewal and a more sustainable future.

QUOTES:

"The Israelis didn't participate chose not to participate they were invited but chose not to participate."
"Sustainable calm bracket uh cessation of military operations and a complete withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza."
"The majority of Israelis um do not accept this they are still in favor of an incursion in um into Rafa Rafa particularly but also they want Hamas completely annihilated from from from Gaza."
"I actually don't think they they believe their own narrative I mean on this I don't really I don't think and that's why I think we have quite noticeable Silence from that sort of dissident element."
"I cannot remember a situation where the United States has negotiated a peace deal with an Arab adversary of Israel which Hamas unequivocally is in this way against uh without in fact Consulting Israel and going behind Israel's back now that that it seems to me whatever the politics behind it that is an extraordinary fact in itself"
"This is touching on really deep you know issues in the United States going back to their Civil War and going back even further um and uh and all of the placeholders the institutional leaders of the United States are you for obvious reasons either Pro Zionist or Evangelical um in the I'm talking about in Congress and in the Senate and in the big institutional as for reasons of um uh contributions to campaigns but also the simple PA that um that and the CIA and other elements of the structure H have and increasingly I think it's not just I mean I don't want to go too far in America because I don't go there and I so I I leave it to others to give it but there are it's getting a wider it's uh if you like fracturing politics in unforeseen ways in the United States"
"The Americans have had an ideological a theological ideological predilection for secularism"
"We had a rule as State Department uh we were not allowed to consider any religious aspect to policies it was to be entirely secular"
"I know nothing about this country I know nothing about his culture I don't you know want to know anything about it because I'm an expert in neoliberal politics and this is what I'm here to do to give you a neoliberal um economy and Constitution"
"Israel is seen as a very late entry Co settler Colonial project in the region and uh it has not been able to come to terms with the indigenous population"
"The political class in the United States doesn't understand how to navigate through them because they have their own V they had their own ideology ideological conception of the future which is now becoming increasingly outdated and isn't working anymore so this is why you see this this this strange Push Pull policies in the Middle East"
"If one thing has become so clear from the Ukrainian crisis is that narratives false narratives propaganda narratives can become deadly traps for those who spin them in the sense that you become trapped inside your narrative and it's very very difficult that once the narrative is established to start working outside it"

HABITS:

Alastair Crooke's wife, Ashley, observes the behavior of displaced people in Israel, such as their school enrollment patterns, to understand their expectations for the future.

FACTS:

The Mizrahi population in Israel has gone from a minority to a small majority, leading to a significant shift in the country's political and social landscape.
The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) operating in the West Bank are now primarily composed of individuals from settler families.
There are approximately 750,000 Israeli settlers residing in the West Bank.
Iran has spent decades developing its military capabilities, including missiles, drones, and underground facilities, as a deterrent strategy.
Iran successfully launched nine hypersonic ballistic missiles that landed within 30 kilometers of Israel's nuclear center in Dimona.
Hezbollah has expanded its control of territory along the border with Israel, increasing to 30 kilometers.
The US has repeatedly postponed issuing a certificate regarding Israel's compliance with international law in its use of American weapons.

REFERENCES:

RECOMMENDATIONS:

The West must abandon the idea of defeating Russia, China, or Iran and instead focus on coexistence and harmonizing interests.
A new security architecture needs to be established to address the lacuna created by the fall of the Berlin Wall.
Honest dialogue and negotiation are necessary to establish a modus vivendi between the West and the rising powers of the East.
The West needs to overcome its reliance on wishful thinking and propaganda narratives to accurately assess the changing global landscape.
A return to industrial planning and development is crucial for the West to regain its economic competitiveness.

Hidden and propaganda messages

In this section we try to find is the text apolitical and propaganda-free.

Remark: We leave to the reader as an exercise to verify that both the overt and hidden messages found by the LLM below are explicitly stated in the text.

Remark: The LLM prompt "FindPropagandaMessage" has an explicit instruction to say that it is intentionally cynical. It is also, marked as being "For fun."

The LLM result is rendered below.

OVERT MESSAGE

The United States and Israel are experiencing political and social shifts.

HIDDEN MESSAGE

The West's global dominance is declining, and new powers are emerging.

HIDDEN OPINIONS

The US is losing its grip on global power.
Israel's actions are isolating it internationally.
Iran is a rising power that cannot be ignored.
China and Russia are forging a new world order.
The West's economic model is failing.
The US is in denial about its declining power.
Israel's settler colonialism is unsustainable.
The two-state solution is no longer viable.
The US is ideologically blinded to reality.
A major global realignment is underway.

SUPPORTING ARGUMENTS and QUOTES

"The Americans have had an ideological a theological ideological predilection for secularism..." - This highlights the US's outdated worldview.
"What changes it so dramatically of course is um that uh that one of those um who suffered a long period of colonial humiliation is now a leading superow China..." - This emphasizes the rise of China as a counter to Western dominance.
"The sanctions Wars are now coming apart they've joined the bricks they've had a established a relationship with the Saudis and they're able to talk to the Saudis they are on an they're on they're clearly in the ascended..." - This points to Iran's growing influence and the failure of sanctions.
"Increasingly Europe and America and I think I've heard you say this finds itself sort of coming to war with the rest of the world..." - This illustrates the increasing isolation of the West.
"The whole narrative and the whole notion of Ukraine is going to be discredited..." - This suggests that the West's narrative about Ukraine is crumbling.

DESIRED AUDIENCE OPINION CHANGE

Recognize the decline of US global power.
Question Israel's aggressive actions.
Acknowledge Iran as a major player.
Accept the rise of China and Russia.
See the flaws in the Western economic model.

DESIRED AUDIENCE ACTION CHANGE

Be less trusting of US foreign policy.
Criticize Israel's treatment of Palestinians.
Advocate for dialogue with Iran.
Support multipolarity and global cooperation.
Demand economic reforms in the West.

MESSAGES

Glen Diesen and his guests want you to believe they are discussing the current situation in the Middle East, but they are actually saying that the West's dominance is waning and a new world order is emerging with powers like China, Russia, and Iran at the forefront.

PERCEPTIONS

Glen Diesen and his guests want you to believe they are concerned and insightful analysts, but they are actually subtly advocating for a shift in global power away from the West.

ELLUL'S ANALYSIS

Ellul would likely argue that the discussion utilizes subtle propaganda techniques to influence the audience's perception of global power dynamics. By framing the conversation around the specific events in Gaza and the US-Israel relationship, they subtly introduce the idea of a declining West and a rising East, thereby shaping public opinion towards accepting this new reality.

BERNAYS' ANALYSIS

Bernays would likely view the conversation as an attempt to "engineer consent" for a multipolar world order. By highlighting the failures of Western policies and the rise of new powers, the speakers aim to subtly shift public opinion away from the established narrative of Western dominance and towards accepting a more distributed global power structure.

LIPPMANN'S ANALYSIS

Lippmann would likely argue that the discussion aims to influence the "pictures in our heads" regarding the global order. By presenting a narrative of a declining West and a rising East, the speakers attempt to reshape public perception of reality and influence the public's understanding of global power dynamics.

FRANKFURT'S ANALYSIS

Frankfurt might criticize the discussion for its subtle propagation of "bullshit". While not explicitly lying, the speakers carefully curate information and present a biased narrative to promote a specific worldview. This deliberate obfuscation of reality, even if not outright falsehood, constitutes a form of bullshit designed to manipulate public opinion.

NOTE: This AI is tuned specifically to be cynical and politically-minded. Don't take it as perfect. Run it multiple times and/or go consume the original input to get a second opinion.

Sophisticated feedback

In this section we try to give feedback and ideas while wearing different hats. Like "black hat", "white hat", etc.

The LLM result is rendered below.

Summary:

This discussion centers around the recent events in the Middle East, particularly the almost-reached ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas. The experts express concern over the shifting political landscape in both Israel and the US, highlighting the rise of a more religiously motivated Israeli society and the increasing disconnect between American political institutions and its changing demographics. They argue that the US's unwavering support for Israel, despite its increasingly hardline stance, is creating friction in its relationships with other countries, particularly in the Middle East. The conversation also delves into the implications of Iran's growing influence and military capabilities, suggesting that the traditional Western approach of regime change or containment is no longer viable. The experts conclude that a broader shift in global power dynamics is underway, necessitating a reassessment of security interests and a new framework for international relations.

Complexia’s Substack

Discussion about this post