[LLM] over "The Attritional Art of War: Lessons from the Russian War on Ukraine"

Tabulated, visual, and textual summaries; a System Dynamics model

Introduction

This post applies various Large Language Model (LLM) summarization prompts to the article "The Attritional Art of War: Lessons from the Russian War on Ukraine" by Alex Vershinin.

In that article for the Royal United Services Institute, Alex Vershinin discusses the necessity for the West to reconsider its military strategy towards attrition in anticipation of prolonged conflicts. The piece contrasts attritional and manoeuvre warfare, emphasizing the importance of industrial capacity, force generation, and economic durability in winning protracted wars.

This (LLM-derived) hierarchical diagram summarizes the article well:

Remark: We plan to use this post/article as a reference in an upcoming post/article with a corresponding mathematical model (based on System Dynamics.)

Post’s structure:

1. Themes
   Tabulated breakdown of the content.

2. Mind-map
   Content structure and concepts relationships.

3. Summary, ideas, and recommendations
   The main comprehension aid.

4. System Dynamics model
   How to make the given observations operational?

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Themes

Instead of a summary consider this table of themes:

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Mind-map

Here is a mind-map that shows article's structure and summarizes the relationships between the presented concepts:

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Summary, ideas, and recommendations

SUMMARY

Alex Vershinin, in "The Attritional Art of War: Lessons from the Russian War on Ukraine" for the Royal United Services Institute, discusses the necessity for the West to reconsider its military strategy towards attrition in anticipation of prolonged conflicts. The piece contrasts attritional and manoeuvre warfare, emphasizing the importance of industrial capacity, force generation, and economic durability in winning protracted wars.

IDEAS:

• Attritional wars demand a unique strategy focused on force rather than terrain.

• Western military strategy traditionally favors quick, decisive battles, unprepared for prolonged attritional conflict.

• Wars of attrition level the playing field between armies of differing initial capabilities over time.

• Victory in attritional wars relies more on economic strength and industrial capacity than on military prowess.

• The integration of civilian goods into military production facilitates rapid armament in attritional wars.

• Western economies face challenges in rapidly scaling military production due to peacetime efficiency and offshoring.

• Attritional war requires a massive and rapid expansion of armies, necessitating a shift in production and training strategies.

• The effectiveness of NATO's military doctrine is compromised in attritional warfare due to the time required to replace experienced non-commissioned officers (NCOs).

• The Soviet model of force generation, with its mass reserves and officer-centric command, is more adaptable to attritional warfare.

• Combining professional forces with mass-mobilized troops creates a balanced strategy for attritional war.

• Modern warfare integrates complex systems requiring advanced planning and coordination, challenging rapid offensive maneuvers.

• Attritional strategies focus on wearing down the enemy's ability to regenerate combat power while protecting one's own.

• The early phase of attritional war emphasizes holding actions and building up combat power rather than gaining ground.

• Offensive operations in attritional war should wait until the enemy's reserves and industrial capacity are sufficiently depleted.

• Deep fires targeting enemy infrastructure and production capabilities are crucial in attritional warfare.

• Attritional warfare requires strategic patience and a focus on defensive operations to prepare for future offensives.

• The West's expectation of short, decisive conflicts is at odds with the reality of potential attritional wars with near-peer adversaries.

• Recognizing the importance of economic strategies and industrial mobilization is key to preparing for and winning a protracted conflict.

• Information operations can manipulate enemy movements and resource allocation to one's advantage in attritional warfare.

QUOTES:

• "Attritional wars require their own ‘Art of War’ and are fought with a ‘force-centric’ approach."

• "The side that accepts the attritional nature of war and focuses on destroying enemy forces rather than gaining terrain is most likely to win."

• "Wars of attrition are won by economies enabling mass mobilisation of militaries via their industrial sectors."

• "It is easier and faster to produce large numbers of cheap weapons and munitions, especially if their subcomponents are interchangeable with civilian goods."

• "The effectiveness of NATO's military doctrine is compromised in attritional warfare due to the time required to replace experienced NCOs."

• "The Soviet model of force generation is more adaptable to attritional warfare."

• "Victory in attritional war is assured by careful planning, industrial base development and development of mobilisation infrastructure in times of peace."

• "Defensive operations buy time to develop low-end combat formations, allowing newly mobilised troops to gain combat experience without suffering heavy losses."

• "The early stages of attritional war range from initiation of hostilities to the point where mobilised resources are available in large numbers and are ready for combat operations."

• "The West's expectation of short, decisive conflicts is at odds with the reality of potential attritional wars with near-peer adversaries."

HABITS:

• Rigorous analysis of own and enemy's economic capabilities and strategies.

• Continuous training and development of military forces, with a focus on rapid mobilization and adaptability.

• Emphasis on mass production of interchangeable military and civilian goods.

• Strategic patience and a defensive focus in the early stages of conflict.

• Utilization of information operations to influence enemy strategies and resource allocation.

• Development and maintenance of a skilled workforce for military production.

• Regular assessments of industrial capacity and mobilization infrastructure.

• Integration of advanced planning and coordination for complex military operations.

• Emphasis on preserving own combat power while depleting the enemy's.

• Prioritization of deep fires targeting enemy infrastructure and production capabilities.

FACTS:

• Attritional warfare necessitates a focus on force generation and economic endurance rather than tactical maneuvers.

• Western military doctrines are generally unprepared for the prolonged nature of attritional wars.

• Economic strength and industrial capacity are decisive factors in attritional conflicts.

• The complexity of modern warfare requires intricate planning and coordination, challenging the efficacy of rapid offensives.

• The Soviet Union's military structure was designed for rapid expansion in the event of large-scale conflict.

• The West faces challenges in rapidly scaling military production due to peacetime efficiencies and reliance on global supply chains.

• Attritional strategies require a balanced force of professional and mass-mobilized troops.

• Deep fires are crucial for targeting enemy infrastructure and long-term combat power in attritional warfare.

• Defensive operations are key in the early stages of attritional war to develop combat-effective formations.

• The West's expectation of short, decisive conflicts does not align with the realities of potential attritional wars.

REFERENCES:

• The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI)

• CSIS’s war over Taiwan war games

• 2018 US government interagency report on US industrial capacity

• The Brusilov Offensive of 1916

• The Allies’ Offensive in 1918

• The German strategy at Verdun during the First World War

RECOMMENDATIONS:

• Western military strategists should reevaluate their doctrines to include preparations for attritional warfare.

• Economies should maintain peacetime excess capacity in military production to ensure rapid mobilization in times of conflict.

• Military training should emphasize adaptability and rapid integration of new recruits into combat-effective formations.

• Strategic patience and a focus on defensive operations should be prioritized in the early stages of potential attritional conflicts.

• Deep fires targeting enemy infrastructure should be a key component of military strategy in attritional warfare.

• Information operations should be utilized to manipulate enemy strategies and resource allocation.

• Continuous assessment and development of industrial capacity and mobilization infrastructure are necessary for preparedness.

• Integration of civilian goods into military production can facilitate rapid armament and mobilization.

• Western military strategists should consider the benefits of a balanced force of professional and mass-mobilized troops.

• Strategic patience and careful planning are essential for victory in attritional wars.

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System Dynamics model

In this section we show System Dynamics model derived with the prompt:

Generate a System Dynamics model for the attrition war described in the following article:

The LLM-obtained model description makes sense, but additional LLM-prompting and/or (mathematical) programming and modeling is required in order to have a corresponding operational model.

The LLM-result is rendered below.

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Developing a System Dynamics model for the attritional war as described in the provided text involves creating a framework that captures the key dynamics of attrition, force generation, economic support, and the impact of industrial capacity on warfare. This model will focus on the interactions between these elements to understand the long-term outcomes of attritional warfare, particularly in the context of the Russian war on Ukraine as discussed.

System Dynamics Model Components:

1. Stocks: These are the accumulations within the system that change over time. For an attritional war model, relevant stocks could include:

   • Military Personnel: This would include both the high-end professional soldiers and the low-end conscripted or mobilized forces.

   • Industrial Capacity: The ability to produce military equipment, which can be split into high-end, complex systems and low-end, mass-produced items.

   • Economic Resources: These are the financial and material resources available to sustain military production and operations.

   • Combat Power: The overall effectiveness and strength of the military forces, influenced by both the quantity and quality of forces and equipment.

2. Flows: These are the rates that change the stocks, representing the processes within the system.

   • Recruitment and Training: Adding personnel to the military personnel stock.

   • Attrition Rate: Reducing military personnel through combat losses.

   • Production Rate: The rate at which industrial capacity produces military equipment.

   • Resource Allocation: The flow of economic resources into military production and operations.

3. Feedback Loops: These loops help to understand how different parts of the system influence each other, either reinforcing or balancing the system dynamics.

   • Reinforcing Loop (R1): Increased industrial capacity leads to more military equipment, which enhances combat power, potentially leading to military success that justifies further investment in industrial capacity.

   • Balancing Loop (B1): High attrition rates reduce military personnel, decreasing combat power, which could lead to a reassessment of military strategies and a potential reduction in aggressive operations to preserve forces.

4. Auxiliary Variables: These are factors that influence flows but are not stocks themselves. Examples include:

   • Training Efficiency: Influences how quickly new recruits can be turned into effective military personnel.

   • Technological Innovation: Affects the effectiveness of produced military equipment and potentially reduces production costs or times.

   • International Support: External support can influence economic resources and industrial capacity.

5. Parameters: Fixed values that define the system's environment, such as:

   • Initial Industrial Capacity: The starting level of a nation's ability to produce military goods.

   • Economic Stability: Defines how resilient the economy is to the strains of prolonged conflict.

Modeling Process:

1. Initialization: Set initial values for stocks based on historical data or estimations (e.g., pre-war industrial capacity, initial military personnel levels).

2. Simulation: Run simulations to see how the system evolves over time under different scenarios, such as changes in economic support, variations in attrition rates, or shifts in military strategy from high-end to low-end focus.

3. Scenario Analysis: Test various strategies, such as increasing the emphasis on producing low-end, mass-produced military equipment or focusing on preserving high-end forces through better training and reduced attrition.

4. Policy Design: Use insights from the model to suggest strategic adjustments, like expanding industrial capacity, improving training programs, or reallocating economic resources to more effectively sustain an attritional war.

This System Dynamics model provides a structured way to analyze the complex interactions in an attritional war, helping strategists and policymakers understand the long-term implications of different military and economic strategies.

System Dynamics model diagram

Here is a diagram of the model description above:

Remark: The diagram above does not present a System Dynamics model per se. It represents conceptual relationships of such a model. In an upcoming article we plan to present actual System Dynamics model with corresponding description, diagrams, equations, and simulation results.